Farmers have been feeling the weight of the most recent trade negotiations, as tariffs on both agricultural inputs and soybean exports have become a sticking point in the redrafting of American trade relations. President Donald Trump has sought short-term fixes, namely repurposing tariff revenues for farm bailouts and preventing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from implementing new federal regulations on agriculture. The fact that RFK Jr. hasn’t touched energy or pesticide policy is good news for strained consumers and farmers alike.
However, trouble is brewing elsewhere. China has only committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of soybeans, down from 22.5 million. While bailouts will provide momentary relief for farmers contending with high seed and fertilizer costs, the long-term ramifications of trade partners switching trade routes to South American exporters such as Brazil could mean the ruin of many in the farming business.
There are a number of things the administration can do to prevent the worst, not least because farmers were very supportive of Trump’s reelection, but also because it is consumers who will face holiday season sticker shock at the store if farmers can’t maintain an affordable food supply.
The administration needs to work harder to conclude comprehensive trade agreements with countries it has been particularly hostile toward, such as China and the European Union. Farmers require large volumes of customers, and Europe has a very large consumer base, along with the inputs American farmers need, such as chemical fertilizers and farm equipment.
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