At 12:01 a.m. on Sept. 8, Canada matched President Trump’s tariffs “dollar for dollar” by imposing 15-50% duties on more than 700 American-made products, including steel, cement, dairy, and electronics. This mirrors the 50% tariff that the U.S. slapped on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods on Aug. 22. And in response? Trump announced overnight a ban on the import of various Canadian alcohol products, some dairy, and motorcycles, effective Sept. 29.
Trump’s move invokes the rarely used Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, and the same order now threatens to ban Canadian products from federal contracts entirely. As if there weren’t enough fuel in the fire, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joked that Canada could “take their two submarines (in West Edmonton Mall) and sic them on us.” In other circumstances, specifically one in which consumers on both sides of the border weren’t paying for it, this would be rather hilarious.
So what happens next? Well, what we do know is that construction lawyers are already advising clients on infrastructure projects to shorten their bid validity windows and rewrite change order clauses, because a 50% tariff can make an estimate entirely obsolete before any concrete is ever poured. New York City, which pulls upwards of 20% of its power from Canada, is now in the crosshairs as the saber-rattling intensifies over who can do the most harm to the other.
But none of this was actually decided by those who have to buy or sell these goods on either side of the border, and when polled, both Canadians and Americans think the trade war is silly and unnecessary.